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Report from Nobel Conference - Heating Up: The Energy Debate

Every year, Gustavus Adolphus College in tiny St. Peter, MN holds a Nobel Conference, authorized by the Nobel Foundation of Stolkhom, Sweden. The conference brings together renowned experts to discuss timely issues, like aging or globalization. This year, it was “Heating Up: The Energy Debate.”

I attended the two-day event, which delivered in its round-up of impressive energy and global warming experts: Nobel Laureate in Physics Dr. Stephen Chu, biofuels expert Dr. Lee Rybeck Lynd, peak oil expert Ken Deffeyes, economist Paul L. Joskow, polar explorer Will Steger, hydrogen expert Joan M. Ogden, and James Hansen, Director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

While at times the science got a bit thick, the message from all of the lecturers was clear: Global warming is urgent, we need to do something NOW, and many different solutions will get us there.

I was most interested to hear from Paul L. Joskow, an MIT economist who discussed the best methods for regulating carbon dioxide (CO2), a major contributor to global warming. Many politicians favor a cap-and-trade policy, in which a limit on CO2 is determined and then tradable/sellable permits to pollute are issued to utilities and industry. Economists, on the other hand, generally prefer a carbon tax that simply taxes CO2 at a certain rate.

Although an economist himself, Joskow argued that a cap-and-trade policy is the best way to create a market for CO2 and drive down emissions. First of all, a cap-and-trade policy is politically feasible, and making sure it actually has a chance of passing Congress in our lifetime is the most important thing to slowing global warming. Secondly, a cap-and-trade plan links the U.S. with other nations (and other states) that have already started down this path, thus creating a global solution to a global problem.

While economists favor a carbon tax that the feds could ideally use to cut taxes in another area, like income, Joskow said “perfect the enemy of good.” Sure, in a perfect world we would tax bad stuff and never tax good stuff (like working). But the urgency of global warming calls for a good system that is feasible now and gets us in sync with the rest of the planet. And the best system for that is a cap-and-trade policy.

Joan M. Ogden lectured on a hydrogen economy, although her fellow panel discussion presenters were skeptical of using hydrogen as a fuel source, at least in terms of it being ready fast enough to fight global warming. Although no option should be taken off the table, hydrogen could play a more important role in bettering existing technologies (like ethanol production) rather than creating an entirely new infrastructure.

Dr. James Hansen – you may remember him from his accusations that NASA officials edited his global warming reports – said that if someone is seriously concerned about climate change, any elected official they vote for should agree on three principals:

1) A moratorium on traditional coal-fired power plants (until we can sequester the CO2, building more plants moves us backwards)

2) Policies that encourage more renewable energy

3) Incentives for energy efficiency.

With the clean technology here but the leadership lacking, the issue of urgency was paramount throughout the lectures. In fact, I thought the statistics and scenarios put forth more dire than those I normally read in the media. More than one expert prefaced a recommendation with something like, ‘A year ago I would’ve been laughed out of the room for saying this, but now I can say that what we need to do is…’ The extensive media attention on global warming, along with some serious dialogue and action by the business sector and politicians, have made it “safer” to talk about the true consequences and costs of global warming without immediately being labeled a nutcase.

For example, MIT economist Paul L. Joskow said that any sort of carbon regulation is going to raise our utility bills “and anyone who tells you otherwise is lying.” With a cap-and-trade policy that sets CO2 at $50 per ton (a price he thinks is likely), it could drive up utility bills 40-50%. But this would not happen over night: Any measure passed by Congress would give utilities several years to implement efficiency programs to soften the landing. But the message was still clear: This isn’t going to be easy, but we can do it.

Polar explorer Will Steger, who has been traveling and studying the arctic and Antarctic regions for 40 years, gave an eyewitness account of global warming’s effects at the poles (in May I interviewed him about his most recent trip). I’d heard his talk several times, but there was a big difference this time: He showed a slide of polar bear and then said in his quiet-but no-BS –sort-of-way, “This is our friend the polar bear. I’m afraid there’s nothing we can do for them – they will go extinct. I couldn’t say that 18 months ago to people, but now I am.”

Despite the wake up calls – no use in sugarcoating at this point – it was still uplifting to know that some of the planet’s smartest people are working on this and elected leaders are slowly getting the message.

Now, it’s time for the rest of us to get to work. For starters, check out Will Steger’s “Template for Action,” Lighter Footstep’s “10 First Steps,” or the Union of Concerned Scientist’s “How You Can be Involved.”

6 Responses to “Report from Nobel Conference - Heating Up: The Energy Debate”

  1. jlhagstrom Says:

    I have to say that for a long time now I’ve been intensely frustrated with how glacial, if you’ll pardon the pun, the United States has been in its response to global warming — and with the head-in-the-sand administration responsible for it. But today I find myself wondering if it hasn’t been a good thing — because the net effect is increasingly proving to be that people are so frustrated with the government’s response that they’re taking it upon themselves to respond: individually and as local governments. Clearly this situation is going to require BOTH that sort of response AND a large-scale government reaction. It is just possible that if the government were going like gangbusters to solve this problem, a number of citizens who are now changing their personal habits would have postponed the decision to do so on the rationale that "enough was being done by other people." Clearly someone had to go first. Maybe, ultimately, it will turn out to be better that it was the citizenry. We’ll see.

    Anyway, great post — thanks!

  2. Unregistered User Charlie Peters Says:

    Does corn ethanol policy for fuel increase oil use and oil profit?

    Some folks think so

    Clean Air Performance Professionals

  3. Unregistered User P Paulson Says:

    Excerpted from the description of the conference, Heating Up: The Energy Debate…

    “In the United States, oil production has been declining since the early 1970s, and dependence on foreign oil continues to increase amid the threat of terrorism arising from the oil-rich Middle East. What will be the energy sources of the future? Several new and exciting technologies are on the horizon, including hydrogen, solar and wind power, biofuels, and advanced nuclear power.”

    Yet, this report only addressed climate change / global warming. Was there no discussion at all at the conference about oil depletion, the possible timing of same, economic & societal implications, mitigation strategies, alternatives, etc…other than one sentence about hydrogen?

  4. Maria Surma Manka Says:

    P Paulson - Yes there was more to the conference than my highlights here. Kenneth Deffeyes lectured on peak oil. He focused on the science behind determining peak oil and how quickly we need to move to alternatives (but didn’t elaborate so much on what he thought were the best alternatives).

    Mitigation strategies included the need for efficiency, more renewables, and carbon regulation. Shorter evening presentations included topics like community-owned wind power and Minnesota’s response to the problem.

  5. A Siegel Says:

    Very good discussion of a meeting that seems to be getting near zero attention in the US traditional media. Thank you.

    Let me try to take on one assertion:

    MIT economist Paul L. Joskow said that any sort of carbon regulation is going to raise our utility bills “and anyone who tells you otherwise is lying.”

    Well, Californians pay far more per kilowatt hour than Texans yet they pay significantly less in terms of monthly bills re electricity. Why? Because a reasonable amount of that money goes into controlling/reducing power use.

    And, for decades, Californians monthly electrical bills are near flat (except for the 2001 spike) while Texans have gone up significantly. Thus, a carbon tax (fee is better term), with a reasonable amount of money going toward energy efficiency, could help mean that while Americans would pay (far) more per KwH, they would end up with the same or even lower electrical bills.

    There was a great discussion re Texas/California on Daily Kos the other day: “A Tale of Two States”: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/10/8/15633/2924

  6. Maria Surma Manka Says:

    Thanks for the link A Siegel. And Joskow eventually would agree with you: That although electric bills would go up with a carbon tax, the efficiency measures (assumed to be) implemented would bring that cost down.

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