Struggling to break the oil addiction by mid-century
Oil will continue to be a substantial part of our lives until at least 2050, reports the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its 2006 World Energy Outlook. Currently sitting at 35 percent of our energy mix, oil is expected to be about 33 percent of the pie by 2030, assuming a business-as-usual scenario that takes into account renewable energy sources.
Asia will lead the way in consumption and a shrinking number of major producers will drive up demand. IEA predicts prices could reach $130 per barrel in 2030, and OPEC also assumes rising prices as demand outpaces supply. Reuters reports:
An official at oil exporters' group OPEC said oil's share of the world energy mix may be smaller in 2050 than today but it would remain important. "At OPEC we believe whatever the energy mix will be, it will complement the use of oil," said Hasan Qabazard, head of research at OPEC, source of more than a third of world supply. "Oil will continue to play an important role in developing and poor countries, as it played a very important role in the development of industrialised countries in the past."
With the consequences of global warming being felt around the globe, we can’t afford this economically or environmentally. A mere two percent decrease in oil use could be frustrating and demoralizing to those of us working for a clean energy future, but it must drive us as consumers, businesses as suppliers, and governments as regulators to move quickly, logically, and deliberately to break our addiction to oil before it breaks us and the planet.
